Post #272
1000 words; 4 minute read
Summary: The most recent report by Statistics Canada shows a drop in crime but there are lots of important details underneath that headline. Most reported crime is relatively minor and trends can only be seen over time.
A year or so ago the mass media were full of headlines about increasing crime rates in Canada. Crime was a major issue in the federal election this spring, with all the parties pledging to be ‘tougher’. Now we have the latest annual report from Statistics Canada, which indicates that crime is down in Canada. Do we see a similar widespread reporting of this good news? No, this report has received very little attention, because, it appears, nobody really wants to hear good news. We prefer intimations of disaster.
We have posted before on this blog about this annual report from Statistics Canada – here for 2022 and here for 2020. It is important to note that Statistics Canada only reports the data; it does not interpret them, which is another reason that any such interpretations should be scrutinized. The misuse of data for partisan purposes is an increasing issue around the world, and data on crime is an area where such misuse is very frequent, as noted in many previous posts on this site.
For 2024, police reported crime was down overall 4% after 3 straight years of increases. But the long term trend for Canada – and for many other countries – remains very substantially down over the long term even as there is constant talk about how much better things used to be. In Canada the overall crime rate is down more than 30% from its peak in 1992, shown more compellingly in the chart.
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Year to year fluctuations in crime rates are normal and generally do not indicate significant trends, yet they are often what gets attention. One can really only determine if trends are meaningful over a number of years. This is especially the case with highly visible crimes such as murder, or shootings, where, because the overall number is quite low, even a small change in numbers can look like a big percentage change.
When we consider the 2024 report in terms of which crimes (excluding those where the overall numbers are small) had the greatest change in the past year, we find the biggest decreases in child pornography (down 24%), extortion (down 10%) vehicle theft (down 17%) and breaking and entering (down 11%). The biggest increases were in shoplifting (up11%) and drug offences (up 14%). But there is no reason to think that these changes represent some important underlying trend. The patterns are not consistent from year to year and seem largely to be either random or due to changes in the amount of attention a particular crime gets from police and prosecutors.
Car theft is an interesting example. A year ago there were endless media stories about the rapid increase in car theft – even though it was still half the level of 25 years ago. This year the sharp decrease got very little attention.
Another example is related to cyber crime – that is, crimes committed on or through the internet. The overall rate of such crimes doubled from 2018 to 2024, yet decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024. In particular, child pornography charges went down sharply in the last year, for reasons that are not explained in the report and may not be understood at all.
Most crimes are relatively minor
To think appropriately about crime, we should pay attention not just to the overall rate, but to its components. The vast majority of reported crimes in Canada are relatively minor. For example, in 2024 ‘violent’ crimes accounted for about 20% of all crimes. But of the 590,000 violent crimes reported, more than half were assault level 1 (involving no injury) and uttering threats. There were fewer than 1000 murders or attempted murders – which is one sixth of one percent of violent crimes. So a lot of what is classified as ‘violent crime’ does not involve what most of us would think of as significant violence. Thus our picture of crime in Canada is further distorted.
Similarly, of 1.3 million reported property crimes in 2024, more than 60% are in three categories – shoplifting, theft under $5000 and mischief. Again, while these are crimes, they are not the kind that tend to frighten people.
Other factors affect crime rates
Another issue affecting rates is the way certain crimes get classified. For example, in 2024 human trafficking charges were up sharply while prostitution charges were down even more, reinforcing a point made in an earlier post*** that prosecutors are now using human trafficking charges for what used to be called prostitution – perhaps in an attempt to justify harsher sentences.
Crime rates also vary sharpy across parts of Canada, being very much higher in the three territories, then in the prairies, and lower in eastern Canada. It is not clear what the reasons are for these differences, but they are large and consistent year over year.
Missing: Context and causes
It seems highly likely that these consistent patterns are related to other social factors. Yet one important aspect of the Stats Canada report is that there is virtually no mention of social context. For example, we know that homelessness is increasing substantially in Canada, and that homelessness is a correlate of crime. Homeless people are policed much more actively so are more likely to be charged – for example for living in an encampment. People who have nothing may feel more need to steal in order to survive. To see more shoplifting with more homelessness is not surprising. Similarly, quite a bit of minor crime, such as theft, is committed by people with addiction issues, especially when the only way to feed a habit is through theft.
While the relationships between social condition and crime are not simple, it is also impossible to understand crime without considering them. Picking out isolated facts to suit a point of view may be good politics, but it will not lead to effective policy.
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